Blog

Feedback in:

Hey Michael,

I apologize in advance for the length of this email, but I am wrestling with two issues and hope you can provide guidance. I have read or listened to your Little Book of Trading, Complete Turtle Trader, Trend Following, Trend Following Master 1, and I am about to start Trend Commandments, and then go to the book you did with Basso. I am considering purchasing your course as well. I love the idea of trend following and have been doing it with stocks without knowing the appropriate name for it.

The first thing I keep coming back to is that almost every trader you have on talks about the importance of everything else besides entries & exits, often saying that it is the least important thing. They say it doesn’t matter as much as other aspects of trend following, such as risk management and the psychology associated with trading. They say there are no secrets and no holy grails. However, they then refuse to talk about their entries and exits. I can’t square that circle in my mind, and I am hoping you can help me. I understand them emphasizing the other parts of trend following, especially the money management/risk, and psychology. I also understand that you don’t want to share proprietary information, but I keep hearing the same refrain of there being no secrets and entries/exits aren’t important, and then on the other hand, not talk about it. Besides what Seykota said about not wanting people to just take those rules and run with them, and not learn the other, more important stuff, I haven’t heard a justification – or maybe I am missing something?

Second is this – I am sold on the concept of trend following – it fits my investing personality of taking small losses and riding the payoffs. I have a deep understanding of psychology (my background is in sport psychology, which is what I earned my master’s in), and I have coached high school and college football. I serve as a consultant for NFL and college teams and work with athletes on goal-setting, performance anxiety, and everything in between, so the cognitive biases are at the forefront of my mind. I don’t believe the markets are efficient, and it irks me when people say, “You can’t beat the markets, look at all these mutual funds.” Well, I am not a mutual fund that has to hug an index, and I can go to cash anytime I want. I have had great success picking stocks in my first three years of investing, beating the Nasdaq by double every year. It wasn’t particular skill – I was very lucky (I invested in two plucky little start-ups called NVIDIA and Palantir).

Anyway, I say all of this to say that I know I can beat the market by picking stocks. However, I am not sure I can beat the trend followers in the futures market. I am a MASSIVE Cliff Asness fan, and have spoken to people at AQR on multiple occasions. I worked with Larry Swedroe, who helped me select some of AQR’s alts for my alts sleeve, including their HV Managed Futures fund in my Roth. Unlike these massive mutual funds, the futures market is more limited, and AQR can do whatever it wants – it can go long, short, go to cash, etc. I know this might be a silly question, but can someone like me beat AQR’s (and its 400 PhDs) Managed Futures HV or Total Trend fund? Would it be worth just investing in their products, rather than trying to do it myself? What advantage would I have in doing it on my own? Is there an advantage?

Lastly, does the system you’re selling include the actual trend following systems with rules, entries, exits, risk-management stops, etc.? Does it have the tools to build them in TradeStation or similar platforms? On a sidenote, I got with George Pruitt, and I built my first systematic trend following system in TradeStation using the original turtle rules – I know they don’t work like they used to, but I wanted to test that I could build something and make it work first, and it has been a lot of fun!

I appreciate you taking the time to read this long ass message. I have really enjoyed your work! I hope to hear from you soon!

Vass

Thanks for the nice note.

Yes. All rules. All systems. Read here.

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

If I’m on a desert island, when I see a water source, I will hand wash my laundry. But in my apartment I will use the washing machine.

Chart readers are out there! Sorry, it doesn’t work. Trend following ain’t chart reading or chart prediction.

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Greetings Mr. Covel,

My biggest trading challenge right now is disciplined execution through uncertainty and limited capital.

What drew me to the Turtle Traders was realizing that intelligence or prediction wasn’t the edge—rules, risk management, and survival were. I’m currently focused on trend following principles: accepting frequent small losses, controlling risk tightly, and learning to let winners run without interference.

Where I’m still developing is consistency—executing the same rules through drawdowns without shrinking winners or forcing trades. Capital constraints make that process more psychologically demanding, but I’m deliberately working within those limits rather than fighting them.

That shift—from trying to be right to focusing on process—has been the most important change in my trading so far.

Best regards,

Moises

I can help.

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Chart Fight to Start 2026 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Feedback in:

Hello Mike,

I hope you’re well. I have a few questions. If someone is looking to work with you, how much should a trader start with in their brokerage account? Is trend following possible with a small amount like £10,000? Would they also need to invest in your mentorship?

Right now, I’m working with a prop account, but the tight drawdowns make it extremely difficult to trade the market from the daily time frame. If the PnL goes up and down, they will kick you out. Please share your guidance.

Thank you, my friend. I’m a big fan of yours. Your Turtle book inspired me to be the best in this field.

Thomas

A good read. Answers it.

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Hello sir,

My name is Seongjoon.

I purchased your great book and I believe that I will follow ‘trend following’ after reading your book and studying!

I read that you are going to send the presentation when I send the receipt for the book.

I am waiting for your reply with the file.

Thanks.

Best Regards,
Seongjoon Park
Seoul, Korea

Sent!

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Here’s my story…

I didn’t invest in the stock market until 2020 at age 49—at least not anything significant. Up until that point, I considered real estate a better investment option, so I bought a handful of residential properties. Six, to be exact: four duplexes and two condos. It was small-time stuff in small towns across northern Alberta and B.C., Canada. They brought in a modest monthly income to add to my earnings as a musician.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Everything went into shutdown mode. Nobody was driving; nobody was flying. The world came to a standstill. Consequently, oil prices crashed along with oil stocks. At that point, I thought to myself: If there was ever a time to buy stocks, it would be right now—oil stocks specifically.

To me, it was 100% plain logic. Everything couldn’t stay locked down forever. Sooner or later, governments would have to let people get back to living their lives. I was certain that when that happened, oil stocks would rebound in a massive way. So, in May 2020, I scraped together every penny I could, maxed out my line of credit, and put it all into mid-cap oil stocks. In my mind, it wasn’t a gamble or speculation; it was simple logic.

My decision paid off big time. My investments quadrupled in a year. In April 2021, I sold two of my duplexes in B.C., took the profits, and put that money into the stock market as well. However, I didn’t go back into oil. I had sold my oil stocks when the price hit $60 a barrel, thinking that might be the peak. I was wrong about that, but by then, I had the investment bug.

I started investing in speculative companies. I went the complete opposite direction of oil and bought EV car and charging company stocks. I intended to buy and hold these, thinking I was getting in on a revolutionary industry that would bring me massive profits for the next couple of decades. At first, the stocks made big gains. By mid-November 2021, I had made well over a million dollars—a fortune by my standards—all in just 18 months.

That is when the tide turned. My speculative stock prices started sliding. My portfolio dropped about 20% in the next two months. I thought this was just a dip and a rebound was surely coming, so I held on. The 20% dip turned into a 30% drop, then 40%, 50%, 60%… but I kept holding. After all, almost every financial expert says not to sell when your portfolio is down because the minute you sell might be the minute it starts to rebound.

The rebound never happened. It took three years of steady decline for my profits to deteriorate completely. By the end of 2024, I was in the same financial position I would have been in if I had never invested in the stock market at all. I was far from being a millionaire at that point.

I didn’t know what to do. I still had about $300K, so I put a bit into high-yield ETFs. However, every time Donald Trump spoke about “tariffs,” the value would drop. I sold out of those and sat on cash for most of 2025.

Eventually, while looking into ETFs again, I stumbled across a gold mining ETF (GDMN) and found it had doubled since the beginning of 2025. I did some research and realized that gold and silver had been on a tear all year. I had been oblivious to this until December 2025. I discovered that silver was outpacing gold and that there was an incredible shortage, with supply unable to keep up with demand.

The wheels in my head started turning again. Late in December, I decided to take the leap and invest in silver miners and silver ETFs. No sooner did I do that than the CME decided to raise margin requirements on silver—twice! After the second hike, I sold off all my investments in silver and mining stocks. I don’t want to play a game where the rules can change in an instant and one organization has the power to intentionally sabotage gains in an industry.

The good news is that I didn’t buy futures and I wasn’t leveraged, so I didn’t lose money on my very short-lived silver play. The bad news is that I’m completely at a loss as to how to invest my money now.

That’s my tragic story. I hope it was interesting, if nothing else.

Tim D.

Time for trend following. Right?

---

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.